PROJECT MANAGEMENT 101 AT WESTON & SAMPSON
MODULE 1 · WEEK 3
Set Up the Forecast
Millbrook scored 80 on the Go/No-Go form, so it is a Go. The Marketing Lead and the Technical Lead are named, and the opportunity is opened in Deltek Vantagepoint at the Proposal stage.
After the record is opened and kept current, how many weeks of work does the team's revenue projection show?
What is given
- Projected Gross Revenue
- $250,000, from the bottom-up estimate
- Other direct costs
- $40,000, the specialty stormwater subconsultant, at cost
- Markup on that cost
- $6,000, which is 15 percent
- Win probability at the Go decision
- 20 percent
- Existing backlog, labor only
- $126,000 of Net Labor Revenue under contract
- The team's weekly rate
- $18,000 of Net Labor Revenue a week
Round dollars to the whole dollar and weeks to one decimal.
Step 1Opening the record and fixing the revenue line
Written Lesson, Sections 1.3.3.2 and 1.3.4
The opportunity record carries Projected Gross Revenue and Estimated Net Labor Revenue as two separate fields. The second is the revenue our firm estimates from its own staff alone. It excludes other direct costs and any markup on them.
Location of firm(s) and team members in proximity to Millbrook.
Provide an estimated level of effort for each phase of the Scope of Work, expressed in staff-hours by labor classification, and identify which tasks the proposer intends to perform through a subconsultant or an outside laboratory. Do not include hourly rates, unit costs, or fees. Pursuant to Section 287.055, Florida Statutes, price is not a criterion in the ranking of firms, and any submittal containing a fee will be returned for correction.
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Projected Gross Revenue | $250,000 |
| Specialty stormwater subconsultant, at cost | $40,000 |
| Markup our firm adds, 15 percent | $6,000 |
| What the client pays for the subconsultant | $46,000 |
Our firm keeps the $6,000 markup, and the markup is not labor revenue, so it stays out of this field.
What is the Estimated Net Labor Revenue on the record?
Two tries. After the second the page shows the worked solution and carries the correct value forward.
Take the gross, then remove the subconsultant cost and the markup on it.
$250,000 − $40,000 − $6,000 = $204,000
Subtracting only the $40,000 leaves the $6,000 markup inside the figure. Our firm earns that markup, so it is revenue, but it is not labor revenue and it is never multiplied by a win probability.
Step 2Weighted labor revenue at the Go decision
Written Lesson, Section 1.3.4
Weighted labor revenue is Estimated Net Labor Revenue multiplied by the win probability. It is what the opportunity contributes to the revenue projection as future backlog, and it is the only place a win probability is applied.
20 percent. Millbrook is a new client, Harlow Reed Engineering wrote both prior studies and is defending, and our firm holds no relationship. The Technical Lead and the Regional Manager agreed the estimate at the Go decision.
What is the weighted labor revenue at the Go decision?
Two tries. After the second the page shows the worked solution and carries the correct value forward.
Multiply by the win probability.
$204,000 × 20 percent = $40,800
The $6,000 markup is never multiplied by the probability. It is not labor revenue.
Step 3Updating the record after the client conversation
Written Lesson, Section 1.3.5
Our firm attended the pre-proposal conference and the site visit on 15 September. An opportunity that nobody updates stays in the revenue projection at its last recorded figures, so the record is updated the same week.
| Solicitation | 26-014, CRA Infrastructure Improvements, Cypress Landing East (CLE) Public Utilities Renewal (TownPUR) Project, RFP (CCNA) |
|---|---|
| Notification date | 08 September 2026 |
| Pre-proposal conference | 15 September 2026, 10:00 A.M. |
| Written questions close | 18 September 2026, 5:00 P.M. |
| Opening date and time | 29 September 2026, 2:00 P.M. |
A non-mandatory pre-proposal conference will be held September 15, 2026 at 10:00 A.M. local time.
Four kinds of evidence support a change in win probability. The client named a driver our firm can solve. The client named a risk our experience removes. The client confirmed a budget range. The client said something the competing firms do not know. The conduct of the meeting itself supports none of it.
| What was said or observed | Does it qualify |
|---|---|
| The Town Engineer named repeat inundation on Palmetto Avenue North as the reason the work is funded now | Yes. A driver our firm can solve. |
| The Town asked how a bidder would handle private seawalls on 68 waterfront properties | Yes. A risk our experience removes. |
| The CRA Board chair said the allocation runs through the 2027 fiscal year | Yes. A budget range confirmed. |
| The Town Engineer said the 2024 model was never calibrated to observed tailwater | Yes. Something the competing firms do not know. |
| Eleven firms attended the conference | No. Context, not evidence. |
| The Purchasing Manager ran the meeting to time and answered every question | No. The conduct of the meeting supports nothing. |
On that evidence the pursuit team moved the win probability from 20 percent to 55 percent. A win probability is a judgment, so the page supplies the new figure directly, rather than asking for it to be derived here.
What is the weighted labor revenue after the update?
Two tries. After the second the page shows the worked solution and carries the correct value forward.
The same revenue line, the new probability.
$204,000 × 55 percent = $112,200
Four statements qualified and two did not. The two that did not are the ones a pursuit team most often mistakes for progress.
Step 4Reading the revenue projection
Written Lesson, Section 1.3.4.1
The revenue projection adds existing backlog to future backlog and divides by what the team earns in a week. Both figures are labor only, so the comparison is like for like.
A three person team earns about $18,000 of Net Labor Revenue in a week.
The team currently holds $126,000 of existing backlog, the Net Labor Revenue remaining on work under contract.
How many weeks of work does the projection show?
Two tries. After the second the page shows the worked solution and carries the correct value forward.
Convert each piece to weeks, then add.
Existing backlog: $126,000 ÷ $18,000 = 7.0 weeks
Future backlog: $112,200 ÷ $18,000 = 6.2 weeks
Total = 13.2 weeks
At the Go decision the same projection read 7.0 + 2.3 = 9.3 weeks.
The projection
Thirteen and a fifth weeks. Seven of them are under contract. The other 6.2 rest on a 55 percent estimate that one person entered in Deltek Vantagepoint.
That is why the record is updated every month and at every stage change. An opportunity nobody touches keeps reporting weeks of work that may never arrive.
Weighted labor revenue is Estimated Net Labor Revenue multiplied by the win probability. Nothing else is multiplied by it, and the markup never is.
A revenue projection is only as good as the last person who opened the record.