Module 1 · Week 3 — Quick Reference Guide

Signature lineA guess and a forecast look identical on the screen. Discipline is the only thing that tells them apart.

One coin, two sides. Revenue and effort get reconciled from two directions; win probability is calibrated against evidence — all three land in the same logged opportunity.

What am I supposed to know?

The five things that don't change

1Log net service revenue, not gross — strip out subconsultant fees and reimbursables first.
2Build revenue two honest ways — top-down (comparable fee) and bottom-up (scope × rate) — and reconcile the two when they disagree.
3Estimate effort in hours by phase and role. The phases we forget — QA, coordination, revisions — are exactly the ones that erode margin.
4The cost of pursuing is real too: the average technical lead spent ~35 hours on a single proposal in 2024.
5Anchor win probability to evidence, not enthusiasm: relationship, position, competition, capture.

What am I supposed to do?

On the job, not just this week

→This week: build the revenue and effort estimate and calibrate a win probability in the Pursuit Toolkit; carry your three habits into next week.
→On every forecast: check the top-down number against the bottom-up build before you log anything.
→Before you log a win probability: apply the bet-your-own-money test — if you’d hedge it, it isn’t that number.
→After you log an opportunity: keep the record current. A stale number is as damaging as an inflated one.

How am I supposed to do it?

Two skills, step by step

Forecasting revenue

Top-down: start from the likely total fee — comparables, client budget signals, RFP range — then subtract pass-throughs.
Bottom-up: build from the scope — phases, tasks, hours, rates — and sum the labor.
Compare the two. Agreement gives you a defensible number.
Disagreement means you’ve found an assumption worth questioning — usually a mis-read scope.

Calibrating win probability

Score the four evidence factors: relationship, position, competition, capture.
Apply the bet-your-own-money test to the number you land on.
Calibrate down until it’s a percentage you’d defend out loud.
Log it — and update it the moment the evidence changes.

Framework box

The reference card

Reads as	What it means
Gross Revenue − (Subs + Reimbursables)	= Net Service Revenue — the number every firm metric measures against.
Top-Down Fee vs. Bottom-Up Build	Reconcile the gap — it’s information, not noise.
Hours × Phase × Role	= Effort estimate, including the phases we forget.
Relationship + Position + Competition + Capture	= the evidence behind an honest win probability.

WSE tools referenced

Where this lives in the real world

Tool / system	What it's for
Vantagepoint	Where net revenue, effort, and win probability get logged and kept current.
Go/No-Go Form (2025)	Source of the four evidence factors behind win probability.

Next: Week 4 (live)

The Pre-Proposal Move — Module 1’s capstone.

Back to Week 3 overview