Weston & Sampson
Project Management · Module 1 · Week 3 Toolkit

Module 1 · Week 3 · Interactive companion

The Pursuit Toolkit

Build a defensible forecast: estimate revenue from the scope, count the effort, and calibrate a win probability you'd bet on.

Tool 1 · Revenue & effort estimator Illustrative

Build it from the scope, bottom-up

Set the hours for each phase. The tool builds your labor (net service revenue) from the ground up at an illustrative blended rate, then strips out pass-throughs and checks your build against a top-down fee. (Rates and figures are illustrative for practice — use WSE actuals on real pursuits.)

Phase
Hours
Blended rate
Labor
Total project hours
Labor — bottom-up net (hours × rate)
+ Pass-throughs
Implied gross fee
Top-down gross

Tool 2 · Win-probability calibrator

Set odds you'd bet on

Rate the pursuit honestly on the four factors that actually move the odds. The calibrator translates evidence into a defensible win probability — and multiplies it into the weighted revenue the firm forecasts against.

Calibrated win probability—
Net service revenue (from Tool 1)
Weighted revenue (net × win %)

Gut check: would you bet your own money at these odds? If a 70% feels like a number you'd hedge, it isn't a 70%.

Tool 3 · Spot the behavior

Does it protect or poison the forecast?

Each habit below looks small on a single record. Decide whether it strengthens the firm's forecast or quietly corrupts it.

Sorted 0 of 5.

Knowledge check

Three questions on forecasting

Answered 0 of 3.